TAP in search of a new partner: Why France and Germany are vying for the Portuguese flagship

The battle for TAP Air Portugal is intensifying. Two groups, Air France-KLM and Lufthansa, have submitted their final bids to acquire 44.9% of the Portuguese airline’s capital, excluding the 5% reserved for employees. The Portuguese government must decide by mid-October, a choice that extends beyond mere financial considerations to shape the future of Lisbon’s hub and transatlantic routes. Between promises of development, alliance stakes, and strategic calculations, the stakes are high for travelers.

Negotiations, underway since the summer, reached a crucial milestone in late September with the submission of improved proposals by both candidates. Air France-KLM is banking on an ambitious vision: making Lisbon its sole hub in Southern Europe, a single platform for its long-haul connections to North and South America. The Franco-Dutch group highlights job creation, loyalty program enhancements, and the development of aeronautical maintenance in Portugal. Its stated goal is to strengthen TAP as a Portuguese flag carrier while securing a dominant position for itself in Southern Europe.

Facing them, Lufthansa is playing the experience and existing integration card. The German carrier, already a partner of TAP within Star Alliance, emphasizes its mastery of network airlines and its ability to support TAP’s growth without altering its national identity. The group also underscores the advantage of an already operational alliance, facilitating commercial and technical cooperation—a factor that could tip the scales.

The Portuguese government, which retains a majority stake, must assess not only the proposed price but also the robustness of the commitments made. Both offers include a minority stake, with the possibility for the selected candidate to increase its share to 49.9% if employees do not exercise their subscription rights. The decision, expected by mid-October, will be followed by a final negotiation phase before the deal is finalized by the end of the year. For travelers, the stakes are twofold: the quality of the network and the airline’s stability.

Air France-KLM wants Lisbon as its exclusive Southern Europe hub

The project championed by Air France-KLM rests on a simple idea: transforming Lisbon into a regional hub for Southern Europe, a strategy aligned with the group’s rationalization efforts. By making the Portuguese capital its sole platform in this region, the group aims to concentrate its long-haul traffic and optimize operational costs. Benjamin Smith, CEO of the group, emphasized this vision: “Our offer has been designed around a stronger Portuguese flag carrier, with Lisbon as the exclusive hub for Air France-KLM in Southern Europe.”

This scenario involves developing new routes to Brazil, the United States, and other strategic destinations, while supporting TAP’s growth in Porto and other Portuguese cities. The group also promises investments in loyalty programs and maintenance activities—key levers to enhance the airline’s appeal. For travelers, this could translate into better long-haul coverage from Europe, smoother connections, and potentially more competitive fares.

A financial element has also been discussed: Air France-KLM considered the possibility of paying all or part of the acquisition in shares. An option that could appeal to the Portuguese government while limiting the immediate impact on public finances. It remains to be seen whether this proposal will be included in the final bid.

Lufthansa bets on the existing and seamless integration

On its side, Lufthansa is banking on continuity and experience. The German group, already a partner of TAP within Star Alliance, highlights its ability to support TAP’s growth without forcing it to change alliances—a stability that could reassure travelers accustomed to flying with TAP and its partners. The group also points to its expertise in managing network airlines, a model it successfully applies to other subsidiaries like Austrian Airlines or Brussels Airlines.

The advantage of this solution lies in the compatibility of systems and processes, reducing the risk of disruption for passengers. For Portuguese authorities, this also means a lesser impact on local jobs and a faster integration of new shareholders. The government will therefore have to weigh the pros and cons: an existing alliance or a more ambitious, though riskier, restructuring.

Both groups have submitted improved proposals without disclosing exact financial amounts. The Portuguese government will need to evaluate concrete commitments, particularly in terms of network development, job creation, and infrastructure investments. A decision that could reshape the map of air links between Europe and South America.

A strategic transatlantic network for Portugal

TAP Air Portugal plays a key role in connecting Europe and Brazil, a rapidly growing market. In 2025, the airline transported 16.7 million passengers, a significant portion on transatlantic flights. The survival of Lisbon’s hub largely depends on its ability to maintain and develop these routes, essential for the Portuguese economy. For travelers, this means that the quality of connections and flight frequency could be directly impacted by the choice of the future shareholder.

The Portuguese government has set the sale deadline for December 31, 2026, providing ample time to review proposals and prepare contractual documents. Once the decision is made, the selected candidate will still need to negotiate details with Portuguese authorities and obtain necessary regulatory approvals. For travelers, the wait could therefore extend before the new face of TAP Air Portugal becomes clear.

In the meantime, passengers can continue booking their tickets while keeping an eye on developments. The airline remains operational, and its flights are maintained pending the finalization of the deal. One thing is certain: the choice of TAP’s future shareholder will have repercussions far beyond Portugal’s borders.

What changes can travelers expect?

If Air France-KLM wins, Lisbon will likely become the central point for its Southern Europe operations. Travelers could benefit from smoother connections to North and South America, along with enhanced loyalty programs. Conversely, a victory for Lufthansa would ensure continuity of services and existing alliances, with a gentler integration of new shareholders.

In either case, the challenge for passengers will be to ensure that TAP’s network remains as dense and reliable as it is today. The airline has already announced it will continue operating its regular flights, but the evolution of fares and travel conditions will largely depend on the strategy of the new owner. Another reason to closely follow the news of this privatization.